MEDIA

Brew

| Jun 2026

The Brew: The 2026 IPO Class – Real Innovation, Realistic Expectations

THE 2026 IPO CLASS: REAL INNOVATION, REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS

Author: Samuel Miller
CFA®, CFP®, CAIA®
Executive Vice President of Investment Strategy

Few investing stories have generated more excitement than the companies preparing to go public in 2026. SpaceX, reportedly valued near $1.8 trillion, and Anthropic, around $1 trillion, anchor a pipeline where roughly 90% of the value is tied to artificial intelligence. The innovation is genuine, and the enthusiasm is easy to understand.

But excitement and investment returns are not the same thing. Decades of research show that buying newly public companies in the open market has typically been a losing trade. Recent cohorts have been especially difficult: every IPO class from 2019 through 2024 trailed the broad market over its first three years, several by more than 70 percentage points.

Average 3-year return by IPO cohort (returns through Dec. 31, 2025)

IPO Cohort Year	Market-Adjusted 3-Year Return	Style-Adjusted 3-Year Return	First-Day Return
2017	+22.6%	+35.6%	12.9%
2018	+23.4%	+55.8%	18.6%
2019	(25.1%)	(8.8%)	23.5%
2020	(78.6%)	(75.7%)	41.6%
2021	(68.6%)	(42.3%)	32.1%
2022	(72.2%)	(69.9%)	48.9%
2023	(88.3%)	(84.7%)	11.9%
2024	(33.2%)	(12.3%)	15.4%

Market-adjusted = cohort return minus the CRSP value-weighted market. Source: Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida, Table 19 (updated Feb. 2026).

Why the gap? Much of the value in these businesses is created while they are still private, so public investors often arrive late, after the easiest gains are gone. The widely reported first-day “pop” rewards those with pre-IPO access, not those buying once shares trade.

The encouraging part is that you may already own the exposure. Through holdings like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, a typical diversified portfolio already carries meaningful stakes in OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, with daily liquidity, public-company governance, and often a lower implied valuation than the IPO itself.

Our guidance is not to ignore innovation, but to pursue it with discipline. When it comes to new listings, the entry point has mattered more than the story.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as individual investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. SEIA is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or tax services. We recommend that all investors seek out the services of competent professionals in any of the aforementioned areas. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Signature Investment Advisors, LLC (SIA) is an SEC-registered investment adviser; however, such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made. Securities offered through Signature Estate Securities, LLC member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through SIA, LLC, 2121 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1600, Los Angeles, CA 90067, (310) 712-2323. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. Individual results may vary, and it is important to consult with a qualified professional before making any financial or legal decisions. For details on the professional designations displayed herein, including descriptions, minimum requirements, and ongoing education requirements, please visit seia.com/disclosures. SIA does not accept time-sensitive, action‐oriented messages or transaction orders, including orders to purchase or sell securities, via electronic mail.

Archives

Third Party Site

The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. When you link to any of the websites provided here, you are leaving this website. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites. Nor is the company liable for any direct or indirect technical or system issues or any consequences arising out of your access to or your use of third-party technologies, websites, information and programs made available through this website. When you access one of these websites, you are leaving our web site and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the websites you are linking to.

Dated Material

Dated material presented here is available for historical and archival purposes only and does not represent the current market environment. Dated material should not be used to make investment decisions or be construed directly or indirectly, as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

Brew|May 2026

MEDIA

Categories

Archives