The Brew: Why Markets Are Looking Past the Iran Conflict

Brew

| Apr 2026

WHY MARKETS ARE LOOKING PAST THE IRAN CONFLICT

Author: Samuel Miller
CFA®, CFP®, CAIA®
Executive Vice President of Investment Strategy

Over the past several weeks, headlines surrounding the Iran conflict have understandably raised investor concerns. Yet despite the seriousness of the situation, financial markets have increasingly shown an ability to look through the immediate noise and focus on the bigger picture.

The key reason is that markets tend to respond not to headlines themselves, but to how those events affect economic fundamentals. Early in the conflict, investors were worried about a prolonged spike in energy prices and the possibility of lasting damage to global growth. Since then, those fears have eased. Oil prices initially climbed but have since pulled back as shipping lanes reopened and supply disruptions proved smaller than worst case scenarios. Financial markets moved quickly to reprice that reduced risk.

At the same time, economic data has remained resilient. Employment levels are still solid, manufacturing activity is holding up better than expected, and corporate earnings expectations have not deteriorated. In fact, earnings estimates for many large U.S. companies have continued to move higher, signaling confidence in business fundamentals even in a difficult geopolitical environment.

Another important factor is that markets are forward looking. Investors recognize that geopolitical shocks often create near term volatility without necessarily changing long term economic trajectories. Recent market behavior suggests that participants increasingly view the Iran conflict as a short term complication rather than a lasting threat to global growth.

This does not mean risks have disappeared. Geopolitical events can evolve, and markets may remain volatile from time to time. However, the broader takeaway is that markets are distinguishing between headline risk and fundamental risk. As long as economic activity continues and corporate profits hold up, markets tend to move past crises faster than the news cycle might suggest.

For long term investors, episodes like this reinforce the value of staying focused on fundamentals, diversification, and discipline rather than reacting to every headline.

MARKET BACKDROP

ASSET CLASS SUMMARY
As of 4/21/2026

Asset Class	1 Month	3 Month	YTD	1 Year	3 Year	5 Year	10 Year
U.S. Stock	+8.92%	+2.88%	+4.00%	+39.01%	+20.85%	+11.59%	+14.43%
Global Ex U.S.	+9.23%	+6.32%	+9.69%	+38.83%	+18.23%	+9.16%	+9.58%
U.S. Bond	+1.16%	+0.53%	+0.48%	+6.30%	+3.89%	+0.22%	+1.75%
Global Bond	+1.62%	+0.68%	+0.50%	+3.50%	+3.23%	-1.47%	+0.70%
U.S. Real Estate	+8.51%	+5.74%	+8.89%	+16.03%	+9.62%	+3.77%	+6.46%

SECTOR SUMMARY
As of 4/21/2026

Cyclical	1 Month	3 Month	YTD	1 Year	3 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Consumer Cyclical	+12.41%	-0.49%	+0.71%	+36.64%	+19.91%	+7.20%	+13.01%
Financials	+7.09%	-1.64%	-4.01%	+16.37%	+18.34%	+10.27%	+12.90%
Materials	+10.39%	+4.90%	+13.74%	+31.67%	+10.67%	+6.56%	+10.45%
Real Estate¹	+8.54%	+6.98%	+10.12%	+15.88%	+9.82%	+4.49%	+7.30%

Sensitive	1 Month	3 Month	YTD	1 Year	3 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Comm. Services	+8.24%	+3.66%	+3.53%	+59.60%	+35.84%	+14.37%	+13.18%
Energy	-5.50%	+14.92%	+25.46%	+45.19%	+13.17%	+23.37%	+9.66%
Industrials	+6.35%	+3.33%	+10.85%	+41.92%	+21.32%	+12.97%	+13.51%
Technology	+14.23%	+7.40%	+4.69%	+63.26%	+32.83%	+19.85%	+24.55%

Defensive	1 Month	3 Month	YTD	1 Year	3 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Consumer Defensive	+1.79%	+1.28%	+7.53%	+6.26%	+7.67%	+7.82%	+8.62%
Health Care	+0.84%	-7.38%	-5.32%	+12.08%	+4.61%	+5.18%	+9.31%
Utilities	+1.38%	+5.14%	+6.01%	+21.75%	+12.34%	+9.35%	+10.28%

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Consumer Cyclical (S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (Sector) Total Return), Financials (S&P 500 Financials (Sector) Total Return), Materials (S&P 500 Materials (Sector) Total Return), Real Estate (S&P 500 Real Estate (Sector) Total Return¹), Comm. Services (S&P 500 Communication Services (Sector) Total Return), Energy (S&P 500 Energy (Sector) Total Return), Industrials (S&P 500 Industrials (Sector) Total Return), Technology (S&P 500 Information Technology (Sector) Total Return), Consumer Defensive (S&P 500 Consumer Staples (Sector) Total Return), Health Care (S&P 500 Health Care (Sector) Total Return), Utilities (S&P 500 Utilities (Sector) Total Return).

1) The index Launch Date is Sep 19, 2016. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is hypothetical back-tested, not actual performance, based on the index methodology in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance reflects application of an index methodology and selection of index constituents with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of factors that may have positively affected its performance, cannot account for all financial risk that may affect results and may be considered to reflect survivor/look ahead bias. Actual returns may differ significantly from, and be lower than, back-tested returns. Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results. This back-tested data may have been created using a “Backward Data Assumption”. For more information on “Backward Data Assumption” and back-testing in general, please see the Performance Disclosure.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as individual investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. SEIA is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or tax services. We recommend that all investors seek out the services of competent professionals in any of the aforementioned areas. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Signature Investment Advisors, LLC (SIA) is an SEC-registered investment adviser; however, such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made. Securities offered through Signature Estate Securities, LLC member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through SIA, LLC, 2121 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1600, Los Angeles, CA 90067, (310) 712-2323. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. Individual results may vary, and it is important to consult with a qualified professional before making any financial or legal decisions. For details on the professional designations displayed herein, including descriptions, minimum requirements, and ongoing education requirements, please visit seia.com/disclosures. SIA does not accept time-sensitive, action‐oriented messages or transaction orders, including orders to purchase or sell securities, via electronic mail.

The Brew: Why Markets Are Looking Past the Iran Conflict

Categories

Archives

The Brew: Trump Accounts – What You Need to…

Q1 Earnings: Tech Carries the Tape

Insights Q1 2026

The Brew: Why Markets Are Looking Past the Iran Conflict

Categories

Archives

Related News

The Brew: Trump Accounts – What You Need to…

Q1 Earnings: Tech Carries the Tape

Insights Q1 2026